Navigating Dispersion: Real Estate Strategies for 2026
For global real estate markets, 2026 demands active selection and granular analysis. In this roundtable, Barings and Artemis experts from the U.S., Europe, and Asia Pacific share insights on sector trends and explore where risks and opportunities are emerging across regions.
How are macro trends and sector shifts shaping the fundamentals across global real estate markets?
Nasir Alamgir: The banking sector’s pullback continues to reshape real estate finance in both the U.S. and Europe. While banks still hold a substantial portion of commercial mortgage loans in both the U.S. and Europe, lending has tightened since late 2022, opening the door for third-party capital to step in and fill the gap. What’s changed—and is becoming a key trend in the U.S. market in particular—is the growing “wall of maturities.” Early projections for 2025 anticipated around $570 billion in loan maturities, but with nearly $400 billion rolling over from 2024, the total is now expected to approach $1 trillion. Problem loans aren’t rolling off bank balance sheets, and incremental write-downs mean it may take another two to four years to resolve. This creates opportunities for credit investors, especially as banks’ lending criteria have tightened, particularly regional and community banks. Today’s market is no longer one where “a rising tide lifts all boats”—it’s a stock picker’s market, requiring micro-market analysis and a clear rationale for each investment.
Nick Pink: From a European standpoint, persistent macroeconomic and political challenges have kept activity more subdued than expected, although momentum is building. Compared to last year, the market feels healthier—cautious optimism has evolved to pragmatism and realism through the year, prompting increasing numbers of both buyers and sellers to act rather than wait.
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