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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

There’s More Than Huawei To Find Conflict With China

9 July 2020 - 3 min read

Growing tensions with China could lead to decisive reactions from Donald Trump and now Boris Johnson. U.S. retail sales are expected to improve in June, and the ECB will likely be in wait-and-see mode to assess the monetary measures it has already taken.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • Retail sales are expected to improve in June, but to a lesser degree than in May. Meanwhile, housing data should rise in June amid pent-up demand.


  • The ECB will likely be in wait-and-see mode. The economic fallout and the impact of monetary measures need to be assessed further before the next moves are likely to be taken, but minor tweaks (to the reserve tiered system, for example) are possible.

Asia Pacific

  • China’s 2Q GDP is expected to rise, given timing of virus containment and reopening. Meanwhile, activity data should continue to improve in June.
  • The BOJ will likely hold rates steady in July while they monitor current policy.

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