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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Spring has Sprung from Seeds of Spending

8 April 2021 - 3 min read

In the U.S., fiscal stimulus and vaccine rollout are already leading to improvements in the service sector. In Europe, upward revisions to PMIs show policy support is minimizing the pain of renewed lockdowns. Meanwhile, the PBOC remains optimistic about China’s growth outlook.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • CPI data for March is expected to rise sharply largely due to base effects. We will watch if markets view this as temporary or if they price in higher inflation, particularly if there is an upside surprise in the data.
  • Retail sales are set to jump in March as fiscal stimulus boosts spending.
     

Europe

  • EZ industrial production for February will show if hard data follow PMI surveys and confirm lockdowns inflicted limited damage to the economy.
  • EZ February retail sales are expected to show improvement after months of softening.
     

Asia Pacific

  • China 1Q21 GDP is set to rise at a solid pace, aided by greater external demand, improving internal demand, and investment.
  • We will monitor China activity data and the recovery in internal demand to see if hard data—such as retail sales—matches earlier PMI data.
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