Ahead of the FOMC's Jackson Hole symposium, markets appeared to position for a dovish conclusion as yields and energy/industrial commodities rose, the dollar weakened, and cyclical equities outperformed. Though high-frequency data suggests activity is easing, demand remains strong.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- The August employment report is expected to show another strong month of job gains despite constraints weighing on labor supply.
- We will watch the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index to see how sentiment is holding in the face of rising cases.
- Watch August EZ CPI closely after an upside surprise last month. CPI is expected to hit 2.5%, and any positive surprise would likely rattle EU bond markets.
- EZ retail sales for July should remain strong with service sectors reopening amid the tourist season.
- China PMIs are expected to continue easing but remain in expansionary territory amid normalizing growth.
- Japan activity data for July should provide an early look at how rising infections have impacted activity, especially as mobility data has shown a gradual deterioration since July.