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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Preparing for Jackson Hole Virtual Backgrounds

20 August 2020 - 3 min read

Look for insights from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium next week. Personal spending and income growth are expected to slow in July amid financial concerns weighing on consumer confidence. Talks with China should begin soon as the U.S. continues to lay restrictions.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Personal spending growth is expected to slow in July compared with the prior two months amid heightened financial concerns in the absence of a fourth fiscal stimulus bill, in addition to greater COVID-19 cases and restrictions weighing on consumer confidence and spending. Personal income is also expected to take a step back in July as disbursement of stimulus checks ends. Eyes remain on Capitol Hill for a decision on additional income support, which would impact August data.
  • The 2Q GDP second estimate will be released on Wednesday. While a major revision is not expected, minor adjustments would not be surprising amid additional data collection and revisions.
  • The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy” will be held virtually on August 27 and 28. We will watch for additional insights on monetary policy framework changes.

Europe

  • The German IFO business climate index is expected to move higher in August as the German economy continues to recover and the European Recovery Fund continues to aid expectations.

Asia Pacific

  • We watch for Japan’s all industry activity index for June. While Japan’s economy contracted sharply in the second quarter, higher frequency data has pointed to a solid rebound in the third quarter, though more COVID-19 cases and regional States of Emergency weigh on the outlook.
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