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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Global PMIs Suggest the Recovery is Getting Wavy

24 September 2020 - 3 min read

Global PMIs show differentiation by country and a wavy path to recovery. The U.S. September employment report is expected to show continued improvement in the labor market, but at a slower pace. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced sweeping virus-control measures.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • The September employment report is expected to show continued job gains and a decline in the unemployment rate. However, the pace of improvement is set to be slower than in previous months, as many of the easy job gains have been obtained.
  • Personal income is set to take a step back in August amid the expiration of additional unemployment insurance benefits. Consumer spending is expected to rise at a more modest pace amid less income replacement and greater uncertainty.

Europe

  • September inflation data across major EU economies will help with understanding whether the dive into deflation was caused by one-offs (VAT cuts, oil slump and high base) or is more structural. Meanwhile, August unemployment will gauge labor markets’ health as the recovery started losing some momentum in Europe.

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs are expected to remain in expansionary territory amid an impressive domestic economic rebound driven by the investment boom that Chinese leadership has engineered.
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