U.S. retail sales rose in June to realign with pre-crisis levels, though tightening restrictions and rising COVID-19 cases following the data seem to be weighing on spending. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve in July, and a new trade deal is in the works.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- Housing data are expected to improve in June amid solid fundamentals, pent-up demand and improvement in higher frequency indicators such as home purchase applications—which are above pre-crisis levels.
- The Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve in July along with other manufacturing data as factories reopen and demand improves.
- The EZ Markit Flash PMIs are largely expected to improve in July amid reopening measures, though services is anticipated to fare better than manufacturing due to weaker external demand.
- The PBOC is expected to keep the one- and five-year loan prime rate steady at the July meeting, though they may have room to cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio.
- We watch for Japan’s Markit Flash PMIs as high-frequency data suggests economic data has bottomed in Japan, but concerns are rising amid increased COVID-19 cases.
- Markets in Japan will be closed on Thursday, July 23 and Friday, July 24 due to the Marine Day and Sports Day holidays.