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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

A Tough Week For Team Transitory

11 November 2021 - 3 min read

The upward surprise in the U.S. consumer price index stoked market fears surrounding higher and more persistent inflation. Meanwhile, inflation hedges such as gold and silver rose. The impact was also felt across the Atlantic, with euro area rates moving up.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • We will watch October retail sales to gauge how declining COVID cases and an early start to holiday shopping are impacting consumer spending patterns.
  • Watch industrial production numbers for October, given protracted supply constraints are keeping demand outpacing supply.
     

Europe

  • U.K. inflation and unemployment numbers for October could tilt the balance at the Bank of England from dovish to hawkish and towards a hike (see next page for more details). Given this, statistics scheduled to be released Wednesday, November 17 will be closely followed.

Asia Pacific

  • China activity data for October will likely show the impact of the latest COVID outbreak, particularly on retail sales and services. Meanwhile, easing production constraints could be a tailwind for industrial activity. 
  • Japan Q3 GDP is expected to contract, given fallout from depressed consumption and shortages impacting production. 
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