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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

The U.S. Grabs the Global Recovery Baton…

18 March 2021 - 3 min read

Slow vaccination programs continue to delay the reopening of EU economies. The Fed showed that even with better growth and inflation outlooks, it remains committed to its accommodative stance. Elsewhere, China activity data so far this year shows the uneven recovery continues.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Flash PMIs for March are expected to improve as restrictions ease, fiscal stimulus reaches consumers, and vaccine roll out picks up.
  • Personal income and spending for February are set to ease as the boost from January stimulus checks fades and weather weighs on spending.
     

Europe

  • Flash PMIs are expected to show continued manufacturing resilience and some improvement in service sectors. Renewed COVID-related restrictions in some EU countries could however hurt services sectors again.
     

Asia Pacific

  • Japan’s March flash PMIs should show that the damage on consumers and business from the latest lockdown has been smaller than that seen a year ago. Lockdowns are set to be lifted in Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures on Monday. Separately in China, we will watch the PBOC meeting on Monday.

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