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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

The Blue Wave Receded Before Reaching Shore

5 November 2020 - 3 min read

We continue to watch the unfolding election results amidst narrowing margins. The U.K. and EU are zeroing in on a solution to break the deadlock over their planned trade deal. China trade data for October is expected to show continued improvement amid a broadening economic recovery.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • We continue to watch the unfolding election results amidst narrowing margins. If court fights ensue and the timeline until an official victor is declared lengthens, the longer-term damage to confidence in U.S. institutions may prove lasting. In the near term, however, the chances for a sizeable fiscal package remain high.
  • Preliminary consumer sentiment for November will be released Friday, November 13 and should give a glimpse into how election results and the lack of a Phase Four deal are impacting the U.S. consumer.

Europe

  • Brexit negotiations continue. Both the EU and the U.K. expressed confidence in the possibility of a deal by mid-month. As ever with Brexit, deadlines remain pretty elusive, however. More details are included in the Policy section on page 2.

Asia Pacific

  • China trade data for October is expected to show continued recovery amid a broadening economic recovery within China and a rebound in global trade. However, higher COVID cases and restrictions in Europe and the U.S. threaten to slow the export recovery in the months ahead.

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