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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Locking Down to Speed Opening Up

19 November 2020 - 3 min read

November's U.S. and E.U. flash PMIs may begin to teeter, and initial claims could show initial signs of greater layoffs as more shutdowns are enacted across the Western world. The vaccines present compelling data as Phase 3 trials show strong efficacies for preventing infections.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • November flash PMIs are expected to show continued recovery, though the pace could moderate amid greater restrictions.
  • Personal income and spending for October are set to moderate amid waning government support to consumers. While pent-up savings should aid spending, extra savings among the low-income cohort is diminishing.
  • Look to initial claims data in the near-term, as indications of a second round of layoffs amid greater restrictions would show up here first.

Europe

  • Expect a generalized softening Monday when November flash PMIs for the euro area, Germany, France and the U.K. are released, with service sectors contracting further due to virus containment measures. October showed mildly negative growth in Q4, and November may be worse if numbers align with consensus.
  • French household consumption and Spanish retail sales data on Friday will show European consumers’ resilience in October amid second-wave lockdowns. Negative numbers in September could mean a deeper negative dive is likely.

Asia Pacific

  • China industrial profits are likely to show continued recovery in the industrial sector. Markets in Japan will be closed November 23 due to Labor Thanksgiving Day.
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