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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Global Supply & Demand Curves Shift to the Left

14 May 2020 - 4 min read

U.S. inflation came in soft for April amid low oil prices and weak global demand. The employment report saw leisure and hospitality with the highest job losses, and Saudi Arabia announced plans to cut oil production again, easing concerns over storage capacity limits worldwide.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Housing data will likely come in weak for April as demand nearly vanished amid lockdowns. However, rising weekly mortgage purchase applications indicate there should be a modest rebound in home sales in May or June, after a collapse in April.

Europe

  • Eurozone and U.K. inflation will likely remain soft in April amid low oil prices and weak global demand. Markit flash PMIs for May should indicate how services and manufacturing sectors are performing as reopening measures began across Europe.

Asia Pacific

  • Japan’s Q1 GDP preliminary estimate should show a modest contraction. However, given social distancing did not begin in Japan until April, Q2 will be much worse.
  • China’s annual National People’s Congress Meeting will begin on May 22, symbolizing China believes the virus is contained. We watch for discussions on economic targets, national budget, and plans for major policies over the year ahead.
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