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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Europe Readies to Open its Wallet

24 June 2021 - 3 min read

The EU recovery fund's spending plans were approved. Meanwhile, Markit PMIs were robust, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. U.S. housing data eased while demand remains strong. In Asia, exports are set to normalize, and we expect external demand to maintain its strength.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • The June employment report should show further improvement in the labor market, driven by the reopening. However, the imbalance between supply and demand will likely continue through the summer, capping the pace of job gains.
  • Earnings season for 2Q21 begins next week.
     

Europe

  • We will watch the June consumer price index for the euro area and major economies, particularly if data surprises to the upside.
  • OPEC is scheduled to meet on July 1. We will watch for supply increases, given the impressive rebound in demand and rising prices.
     

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs should remain in expansion, but there will be focus on the nonmanufacturing sector—particularly in services—given the recent flare-up in cases in the Guangdong province.
  • Japan activity data, including retail, sales and industrial production, should continue to see headwinds from the State of Emergency imposed in April.
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