TikTok may be the tip of the iceberg as the U.S. recommends tech companies remove Chinese apps from their app stores. Uncertainty around the next stimulus package may continue to weigh on consumer spending as we expect weaker data for July.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- Retail sales for July are expected to moderate compared with May and June, as signaled by the high-frequency spending data. Rising COVID-19 cases, greater restrictions in some states, and uncertainty around continued income support have led consumers to pull-back on spending and activities in July.
- Inflation data for July is expected to remain soft as continued health and financial concerns keep a lid on demand.
- EZ industrial production is set to continue its recovery in June as both domestic and foreign demand strengthen, particularly among durable goods.
- China activity data are expected to improve further in July as the recovery continues, while inflation is likely to remain contained.