Stickier price pressures continue to stoke fears of U.S. inflation. Markets are currently pricing in rate hikes, which has led to increases in the short-end of the U.S. Treasury curve. The downward movement in the long-end suggests markets may be worried about a policy mistake.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- Watch the FOMC meeting for a tapering announcement Wednesday. We will also listen for rhetoric around stickier price pressures and labor struggles.
- The October employment report should improve, but pay attention to constraints on labor supply.
- The Bank of England kept its record-low interest rate in September, but many people expect a hike next week.
- World leaders at COP26 are planning to combat global warming, while, separately, OPEC+ members will show their intentions about oil supply, given elevated demand.
- China October PMIs should improve as the energy crunch is addressed.
- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party should hold its majority in Japan’s general election, but the margin of victory will help determine Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s claim to a mandate for his new policies.