Global PMIs show differentiation by country and a wavy path to recovery. The U.S. September employment report is expected to show continued improvement in the labor market, but at a slower pace. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced sweeping virus-control measures.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- The September employment report is expected to show continued job gains and a decline in the unemployment rate. However, the pace of improvement is set to be slower than in previous months, as many of the easy job gains have been obtained.
- Personal income is set to take a step back in August amid the expiration of additional unemployment insurance benefits. Consumer spending is expected to rise at a more modest pace amid less income replacement and greater uncertainty.
- September inflation data across major EU economies will help with understanding whether the dive into deflation was caused by one-offs (VAT cuts, oil slump and high base) or is more structural. Meanwhile, August unemployment will gauge labor markets’ health as the recovery started losing some momentum in Europe.
- China PMIs are expected to remain in expansionary territory amid an impressive domestic economic rebound driven by the investment boom that Chinese leadership has engineered.