For now, gas reserves accumulated at lower prices, government controls, and ample consumer savings will go a long way to mitigate the shock, and, at this stage, does not materially affect our expectations for growth next year.
Gas prices have more than doubled in Europe and the U.S. in the past year, and the rise in consumers’ energy bills risks derailing the recovery. There are three main factors behind the rise in gas prices. First, demand recovered faster than expected due to policy support and cold winters. Second, there have been supply disruptions due to falling domestic output in Europe. Third, China is redirecting away from fossil fuels, increasing the demand for natural gas.