European economic data is surprising to the upside, pointing to a strong Q2 rebound. In the U.S., the release of pent-up demand is leading the service sector to take off. In Asia, further progress in vaccination campaigns should trigger a more balanced recovery in the region.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- Job gains are set to accelerate in May, consistent with improvement in higher frequency data, as the economy continues to reopen.
- ISM manufacturing and services indices for May are set to remain strong. Easing restrictions will support services, while supply chain issues will weigh on input prices.
- All eyes will be on the EZ CPI print for May. Base effects and other temporary factors should propel headline inflation near the ECB target of 2%. A print higher than that would likely stoke renewed fears of runaway inflation.
- EZ retail sales should confirm the upswing as economies fully reopen.
- China PMIs for May should show continued strength in manufacturing, fueled by robust global demand.
- The April 23 State of Emergency may weigh slightly on Japan retail sales for April, while Industrial Production should remain strong amid still-strong exports.