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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Recovery on Track in Spite of Delta

26 August 2021 - 3 min read

Ahead of the FOMC's Jackson Hole symposium, markets appeared to position for a dovish conclusion as yields and energy/industrial commodities rose, the dollar weakened, and cyclical equities outperformed. Though high-frequency data suggests activity is easing, demand remains strong.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • The August employment report is expected to show another strong month of job gains despite constraints weighing on labor supply.
  • We will watch the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index to see how sentiment is holding in the face of rising cases.
     

Europe

  • Watch August EZ CPI closely after an upside surprise last month. CPI is expected to hit 2.5%, and any positive surprise would likely rattle EU bond markets.
  • EZ retail sales for July should remain strong with service sectors reopening amid the tourist season.
     

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs are expected to continue easing but remain in expansionary territory amid normalizing growth. 
  • Japan activity data for July should provide an early look at how rising infections have impacted activity, especially as mobility data has shown a gradual deterioration since July. 
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