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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Is This the Start of a Labor Force Liftoff?

9 December 2021 - 3 min read

Volatility amid the Omicron variant continues to dominate, including new restrictions in the U.K. that led the pound to hit new YTD lows. Rising U.S. inflation concerns and hawkish comments from FOMC leadership suggest the pace of taper is likely to increase next year.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • We will watch the December FOMC meeting amid rising inflation concerns and expectations for an accelerated pace of tapering.
  • We will also watch for legislation that could help avert a government shutdown.
     

Europe

  • The ECB meeting will be key as QE programs’ future will be announced. 
  • The BOE meets among uncertainty on rate hikes after U.K. officials declared new COVID restrictions. 
  • December PMIs will give early hints of Omicron’s effect on the economy.

Asia Pacific

  • China activity data for November could show a recovery amid government intervention.
  • The BOJ will likely keep the status quo but should make adjustments to its pandemic programs amid variant risks.
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