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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Cautious Optimism or Cold Realism?

21 January 2021 - 3 min read

Signs show divergence between China's supply and demand recovery. The first full week of the new U.S. administration will give more clarity on what can feasibly be expected to pass this term. Meanwhile, Italian politics raises questions over the EU recovery fund.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • The new administration’s first full week will provide clarity on Cabinet approvals and how well the divided Congress intends to work together—giving a sense of what can feasibly be expected to pass this term.
  • Q4 GDP is set to expand, but at a slower pace than the surge in Q3. Q4 GDP should remain below 2019-levels as many sectors remain in pain during the early stages of vaccine deployment.


  • Q4 GDP for France, Germany and Spain will show second wave and restriction damage. Declines should range between below -1% for Germany to below -3% for France and Spain.
  • Germany CPI preliminary January print is set to decline further from the historical low of -0.3%. Technical drivers (base effects, oil prices) will likely invert and push inflation back into positive territory. 

Asia Pacific

  • Japan retail sales and industrial production for December will give a better picture of how rising cases and restrictions are weighing on both the supply and demand recovery.

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