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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

U.S. Consumers: Don’t Worry, They’re Here to Stay

28 January 2021 - 3 min read

Worsening U.S. consumer confidence data shows the labor market is expected to remain fragile, though spending should improve due to greater fiscal support. Eurozone inflation will likely accelerate slightly, and strong trade data from Asia shows global demand's resiliency.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • The January Employment Report is set to be weak amid elevated COVID cases and restrictions, in tandem with deteriorating high-frequency employment data.
  • The January ISM surveys will give a sense if recent fiscal support measures are sufficient to aid consumer spending and businesses amid the tough winter months.

Europe

  • EZ inflation will accelerate temporarily, given a low base last year and a one-off rise in oil prices.
  • EZ Q4 GDP will show a negative print on the back of new lockdowns.
  •  The BoE should keep policy steady, but rate cuts below zero will be followed closely as COVID and Brexit fallouts weigh on the economy. Expect volatility with the British pound.

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs for January are expected to ease slightly, due to new restrictions amid an uptick in COVID cases, though the recovery should remain intact.
  • South Korea trade data for January is likely to remain strong amid resilient global demand, given more targeted lockdowns and further government support.
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