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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

The Trough is in—Let the Healing Begin

25 June 2020 - 3 min read

While there is still a long path to recovery, global June flash PMIs confirmed we have passed the trough as contraction eased. The U.S. Employment report will be released next week, and the pressure is on for Britain and Japan to come up with a deal.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • The June employment report is expected to continue on May’s upbeat reading and show further job gains and a lower unemployment rate. Higher-frequency hourly employees and initial claims data point to continued improvement in the labor market in June as economies reopen and consumer spending rebounds.
  • Vehicle sales should improve in June, aided by shifting consumer preferences amid fears over public transit in the absence of a widely available vaccine or treatment.


  • Furlough schemes should keep the EZ unemployment rate from spiking in May.

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs are likely to remain in expansionary territory as domestic demand continues to strengthen.

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