Despite markets’ hawkish perception of central banks across developed markets, we reiterate our central scenario that monetary policy will remain supportive until the recovery is complete. As fears of a growth slowdown are top of mind, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- September consumer confidence should show the balance between an improving labor market and elevated COVID cases. Despite lower confidence in August, personal spending data should remain solid as income supports demand.
- The August Core PCE Deflator—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—is set to remain elevated amid transitory supply constraints.
- August EZ unemployment and retail sales for Spain and Germany will confirm that the recovery of demand continues.
- September inflation numbers for Germany, France, and Italy should remain high, mostly on base effects. It will also show the extent of the pass-through of cost pressures to other prices.
- Increased COVID cases likely weighed on the September China Services PMI, while the elevated CPI-PPI gap will likely weigh on Industrial Profits.
- The Japan LDP Leadership Election should reveal Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s replacement. Taro Kono, the front-runner, is focused on structural reforms, including increased infrastructure spending.