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거시경제 및 지정학

A Vaccine to End All Lockdowns?

2020년11월12일 - 3 분 읽기

Vaccine progress led a rally in stocks, though questions remain. The PBOC is expected to keep policy steady at its November meeting amid a recovering economy, and despite positive data, full recovery in U.S. employment isn’t likely until greater childcare options are available.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Retail sales are expected to expand at a more moderate pace in October as government support to consumers fades.
  • Housing data should continue to strengthen. We watch for supply indicators, as limited inventories are putting upward pressure on prices.

Europe

  • October ECB monetary policy meeting minutes released on November 19 will gauge accommodations the central bank announces at its December 10 meeting. 

Asia Pacific

  • Expect the PBOC to keep policy steady at its November meeting amid a recovering economy, though we watch for comments about weak October inflation data.
  • China activity data in October should show ongoing recovery amid weak CPI data.
  • Japan 3Q20 GDP is expected to rebound following lockdowns, but to a lesser extent than that seen in the U.S. and Europe.
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