The Barings Investment Institute conducts proprietary research to help our teams make the most of the firm’s unique expertise in public and private markets around the world, while exploring the forces that shape long-term investment and capital decisions.

Inversion Obsession

The three things you need to know this week: Yield curve briefly inverts, some U.S. tariffs are delayed and ECB stimulus expectations rise amid fears of a sustained slowdown.

The Great Disappearing Trade Deal

The Great China Trade Deal evaporated before our eyes last week and investors should stop hoping it back into existence. In the increasingly tense relationship between Washington and Beijing, tariffs, retaliation and escalation are all just part of the furniture now.

Busy Week For Global Central Banks

The three things you need to know this week: Fed cuts rates, U.S. slaps additional tariffs on Chinese goods and a budget deal is passed in the Senate.

Monthly Macro Dashboard - 14 min read

July Macro Dashboard

Global leading indicators dipped further into contraction territory in June, suggesting global growth will continue to slow. Despite weaker momentum, the global economy is expected to grow with consensus forecasts predicting a 3.3% growth rate in 2019.

What We Know, What We Don’t Know, What We Think

It’s not even clear that central banks themselves understand what’s going on. Lower unemployment doesn’t seem to nudge inflation higher, as it once did. Commodity prices may, but not reliably.

Global Growth Waning

The three things you need to know this week: IMF lowers its growth forecasts and cites risks are skewed to the downside, China announces financial market liberalization and 37% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings.

Why 2 Degrees Celsius May Beat 2 Percent CPI

Investors should watch closely as some financial regulators begin to take a more expansive view of their mandates and pay more attention to the planet's rising temperature.

Leading Thoughts

A Man, A Plan, A Canal – A Trade War

Trade flows, like water, ultimately find their path.

Still Generally Positive in the U.S. But Your Mileage May Vary

The three things you need to know this week: Fed's Beige Book is out, the ECB ponders moving its inflation goalposts and S&P 500 earnings start trickling in

How Europe Took a Knife to a Gunfight

The continent has made remarkable progress... but its economic interests remain vulnerable in a world that once again favors a sharp elbow over a memorandum of understanding.

An Earnings Recession Now Built Into Consensus

The three things you need to know this week: Negative EPS growth for 2Q19 is now consensus, the CBO's bull and bear case for GDP given varying productivity assumptions and bank stress tests.

Monthly Macro Dashboard - 14 min read

June Macro Dashboard

Global growth continues to slow, but is still positive. Current macro fundamentals are sufficient and suggest a rate cut would be delayed. However, survey data and market messaging signal that rate cuts are more likely and sooner than hard economic data would indicate.

Bearish Positioning is Met By Dovish Central Banks

The three things you need to know this week: Extreme bearishness amid increased pessimism, an impatient ECB and a boldly dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

Showdown in Osaka and the Fate of the World

Osaka will be a showdown less between Trump and Xi than between the forces of globalization … rising nationalism that may steer us toward a sharper confrontation.

Investing for the next “Cold War” & Why It Won’t Be Like the Last One

It seems that the world’s largest economic relationship is headed for dramatic rupture, but for the foreseeable future there will be peril, opportunity and everything in between.

Weekly Update: Oil Instability Amid Rising Mid-East Tensions

June 14, 2019: The three things you need to know this week: Suspected attacks in the Gulf of Oman, the Contest for U.K. leadership is underway and Protests in Hong Kong