Advanced estimates show easing of COVID restrictions led U.S. GDP to soar as second waves have hit Europe and new government restrictions are being implemented. U.S. Election Day is Tuesday; watch Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina—key swing states that may indicate the winner.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
- U.S. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, though the final results may not be available that night. Watch Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina—key swing states that will likely have a final tally on election night. If the election is close, final results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be important but could be delayed.
- The October employment report should show continued labor market improvement, but slowly improving initial claims suggest the pace is set to moderate.
- While the FOMC will likely hold policy steady, we watch for discussions on the future of the asset purchase program at the FOMC meeting on November 5.
- A £100 billion expansion of the asset purchase program is widely expected at the BoE meeting on November 5, while a cut that would bring policy rates into negative territory is not expected.
- China PMIs for October are expected to show a continued recovery in services, but a longer Golden Week holiday may lead to easing in manufacturing data.