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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Will Washington Deliver a Holiday Miracle?

10 December 2020 - 3 min read

U.S. initial claims increased amid rising COVID cases, adding more fuel to the stimulus negotiations fire growing in Congress. China activity data for November should improve, and the Bank of England is expected to remain dovish given the pandemic and Brexit.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • At the December FOMC meeting, watch for a dovish tone and possible rhetoric on asset purchase program adjustments and long-term U.S. Treasuries purchases.
  • Congress faces a December 18 deadline to fund the government and pass fiscal stimulus this year. Funding is expected, but stimulus talks remain uncertain.

Europe

  • The Bank of England is expected to keep an accommodative tone amid the pandemic and Brexit talks, but a rate cut below zero is unlikely.
  • Elevated COVID cases and restrictions will likely weigh on Markit flash PMIs in December, but some lifting of restrictions for holidays may provide added support.

Asia Pacific

  • China activity data for November should improve, but watch internal demand recovery, which could nudge inflation higher after sinking into deflationary territory.
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to remain dovish, inline with fiscal policymakers who just announced new fiscal support measures.
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