Greater fiscal stimulus measures are continuing to take place globally as a result of virus concerns, Super Tuesday will hopefully provide more clarity on the U.S. presidential election and the impacts from Boeing’s 737 Max are weighing on economic data.
Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period.
- The February employment report is expected to show another strong month of job creation. Job gains should exceed the estimated 100,000/month pace needed to absorb new entrants into the labor market. However, as there is still slack to be worked through, wages are not expected to materially accelerate.
- Given the uncertainty surrounding the Democratic nominee, we look for the results of Super Tuesday on March 3, which should signal who the front runner(s) is(are).
- EZ unemployment rate should signal strong labor markets across the region in January, which would aid private consumption—the driver of GDP growth.
- The OPEC meeting March 5 and 6 should yield a decision on whether or not to enact further production cuts. The Joint Technical Committee previously recommended a 600K bpd cut, as the virus outbreak significantly reduced demand.
- China’s exports and imports are likely to decline amid COVID-19 disruptions.