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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Prognosis Negative Amid Trade Tension Remission

21 May 2020 - 3 min read

Further criticism of China’s initial virus response may threaten additional tariffs and trade deals going forward. The E.U. appears to be a step closer to a common-issue coronabond and, U.S. high frequency data is pointing to some improvement in May.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • Consumer confidence is key to the return of demand and, therefore, the path and timing of the recovery, but we expect the Conference Board consumer confidence index to show consumer confidence remained weak in May.
  • Personal spending data is expected to see a larger contraction in April than that seen in March amid lockdown orders. However, high frequency data is pointing to some improvement in May.


  • As countries lift restrictions across Europe, Germany appears to be a leader in the recovery, as seen in high frequency data and investor sentiment. We therefore look to the IFO Business Climate and consumer confidence data to get a sense of confidence amid businesses and consumers in Germany.

Asia Pacific

  • Japan’s April retail sales and industrial production data will give us a first look at how restrictive measures are affecting hard economic data. Unlike most major economies, Japan did not implement restrictive measures until April, so the biggest impact in economic data has not yet been seen.

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