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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Lots of Stimulus, Not Much Inflation

11 February 2021 - 3 min read

Weak U.S. jobs data fuels debate for further fiscal stimulus but some worry inflation may overshoot the Fed’s target this year. In China, the PBOC is tapering monetary stimulus. In Europe, the Q4 contraction was less severe than initially thought, but the recovery looks delayed.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • After declining for three-consecutive months, retail sales are expected to climb in January as the December fiscal stimulus bill finds its way into consumers’ wallets.
  • February flash PMIs are set to remain strong amid fiscal stimulus and easing restrictions.
     

Europe

  • EZ flash PMIs for February will show if the mix of strong manufacturing and increasingly suffering service sectors seen in January will continue, as lockdowns were extended in February. So far, the economic damage of these measures was much smaller than those initially seen in April 2020.
     

Asia Pacific

  • Japan 4Q20 GDP is expected to show modest growth. Elevated cases, weak consumers, and a lack of tourism is weighing on Japan’s recovery.
  • We watch for Japan’s January trade data to see if external demand— which has been key—remained robust despite higher case counts.
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