Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Will Taper Talk Fill Jackson Hole?

August 2021 – 3 min read
Despite a major U.S. foreign policy setback in Afghanistan, the dollar continued to outperform following the release of FOMC meeting minutes, suggesting an earlier start to tapering than expected. Eyes will be on Jackson Hole next week for further hints of a tapering timeline.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • We will watch the FOMC during this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, held August 26–28, for any indications on the taper timeline of asset purchases.
  • Flash Markit PMIs for August will be released on Monday, August 23, which will give insight into how growth is unfolding in the face of rising COVID cases.

Europe

  • Flash August PMIs for the euro area, Germany, France, and the U.K. are out on Monday, August 23, and will show if Europe’s recovery is still accelerating. Consensus estimates expect so: July numbers printed at or close to all-time highs for most components and countries, and only marginal declines are expected in August.

Asia Pacific

  • Japan PMIs should show how much the most recent state of emergency is weighing on activity, particularly on the services sector, which has remained in contraction since the pandemic began. 
  • China industrial profits for July will provide some clues on whether we can expect to see continued strength in manufacturing capex. 

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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