Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Taper Arrives Without a Tantrum in Sight

November 2021 – 3 min read
The FOMC announced it will begin taper this month, but clear communication ahead of the announcement successfully avoided a taper tantrum. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained dovish, viewing price pressures as transitory, he noted increasing risks to the outlook.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Longer-lasting supply chain disruptions are leading to stickier inflation, which suggests that the October CPI will remain elevated.
  • With increased labor demand, we will watch the JOLTS job openings for September to see if and how labor supply is responding to open positions.
     

Europe

  • We are following COP26 decisions to assess progress towards a net-zero world and green investment financing.
  • U.K. GDP and industrial production will be released Thursday, November 11. We expect to see the pace of economic expansion slow in line with expectations.

Asia Pacific

  • China aggregate financing may see continued variability amid regulatory tightening in the property sector. 
  • China PPI will likely remain elevated given the rise in energy prices, while CPI should continue to normalize as base effects from pork prices gradually fade away.  

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Anna Hanley-Walsh

Analyst

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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