Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Shoppers Jump-Start an Early Q4 Pickup

October 2021 – 3 min read
Stickier price pressures continue to stoke fears of U.S. inflation. Markets are currently pricing in rate hikes, which has led to increases in the short-end of the U.S. Treasury curve. The downward movement in the long-end suggests markets may be worried about a policy mistake.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Watch the FOMC meeting for a tapering announcement Wednesday. We will also listen for rhetoric around stickier price pressures and labor struggles.
  • The October employment report should improve, but pay attention to constraints on labor supply.
     

Europe

  • The Bank of England kept its record-low interest rate in September, but many people expect a hike next week.
  • World leaders at COP26 are planning to combat global warming, while, separately, OPEC+ members will show their intentions about oil supply, given elevated demand.

Asia Pacific

  • China October PMIs should improve as the energy crunch is addressed.
  • The ruling Liberal Democratic Party should hold its majority in Japan’s general election, but the margin of victory will help determine Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s claim to a mandate for his new policies.

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Anna Hanley-Walsh

Analyst

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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