Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Readying For Record-Breaking Rebounds in GDP

October 2020 – 3 min read
Q3 GDP confirmed China’s rebound, while we watch for U.S. and EU data next week. The BOJ and ECB will likely hold policy steady, but look for messaging on economic and policy outlooks. Executive orders and employment recovery should support U.S. personal income and spending.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • 3Q20 GDP is set to notch a record jump following a sharp Q2 contraction. While the rebound is largely old news, the data will be released five days before Election Day.
  • Personal income, spending, and savings for September will be released October 30. Recovering compensation to employees and fiscal stimulus via executive orders should support income. Further use of savings should support spending.

Europe

  • Preliminary Q3 GDP in four major EU economies could show a record rebound, with bigger jumps in countries that saw bigger Q2 drops. France, Spain and Italy should post double-digit non-annualized Q/Q growth; Germany high-single digits.
  • Absent new policy at the ECB meeting, expect a hint of further stimulus at its December 10 meeting, as well as an extension of PEPP’s June 2021 deadline.
  • EZ inflation is expected to stabilize in October before increasing slightly, following its precipitous drop into negative territory.

Asia Pacific

  • The BOJ is expected to hold policy steady at its October 29 meeting but downgrade growth and inflation in their new quarterly projections, due to a sharper-than-expected Q2 contraction and a slow recovery in consumption. 

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Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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