The Barings Investment Institute conducts proprietary research to help our teams make the most of the firm’s unique expertise in public and private markets around the world, while exploring the forces that shape long-term investment and capital decisions.
Can “Friendshoring” Replace the G-20?
Any vision of closer commercial integration among U.S. allies and partners must be as inclusive as possible.
Sticker Shock Sinks In
Investor sentiment has whipsawed in recent weeks amid focus on growth risks. U.S. and euro area PMIs underperformed and real U.S. spending fell for the first time since November. On the other hand, China has taken a step to relax restrictions. Watch for U.S. jobs data next week.
The Fed Can't Stop, Won't Stop
The Fed turned more hawkish this week, upgrading its outlook for the Fed Funds rate, and lowering its outlook on growth—leading to a risk-off tone in markets. Meanwhile, the ECB announced a new tool to help address the uneven transmission of monetary policy normalization.
A Scenic But Treacherous Trail
Aggressive central bank tightening and declining purchasing power suggest the slowdown in growth should be steep, and faster than the inflation slowdown.
The ECB Joins the Growing Circle of Hawks
The ECB officially joined the hawkish camp, announcing a more aggressive path of rate hikes, which led markets to reprice the euro curve higher. Meanwhile, despite a move higher in initial claims, a strong U.S. jobs report will keep the FOMC on its hawkish rate-hiking path.
The Path From the Peak
With inflation still above-trend, prices rising for necessities, central banks tightening policy, and fallout from China’s zero-COVID policy, we will watch for a sharp slowdown in growth over the 12–18 month outlook.
Housing Trembles But the Foundation's Still Strong
U.S. housing demand is cooling as the 30-year mortgage rate reaches a 13-year high, though housing starts and permits remain above pre-COVID levels. Economic data shows strong but normalizing growth, and recession risks remain as PMIs, housing data, and China’s economy all slow.
The Inflation Playbook
How does today's inflation compare to history and how are higher CPI numbers impacting economic growth? What can central bankers do to combat inflation? And how can investors navigate this environment? Dr. Christopher Smart weighs in on these questions and more.
Shoppers Keep Spending, But For How Long?
A risk-off tone was prominent this week in markets amid rising worries of stagflation, given aggressive monetary policy. Despite the solid U.S. retail sales data, retailers led a sharp decline in equities mid-week, which pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower.