Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

You Will Remember The 21st Day of September

September 2022 – 4 min read

Data and expectations continue to drive markets, which have priced in a 75bp hike from the FOMC, though some foresee more; expect 50bps from the BoE given concerns about inflation and energy prices. In China, mounting worries about growth and weak trade are elevating concerns.


you-will-remember-chart1.jpgArrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.

  • Just like Earth, Wind & Fire, we will watch the FOMC meeting Wednesday, September 21 following the upward surprise in August inflation. Markets have now fully priced in a 75bp hike, with some expecting it could possibly be larger.
  • Concerns over the growth outlook remain intact, so close attention will also be paid to the preliminary S&P Global PMIs for September.
  • We expect a 50bp hike from the Bank of England, given the lower expected near-term peak in headline inflation and a freeze on energy prices. Risks are tilted to the upside.
  • We are watching the euro area Flash PMIs to see if economic activity continued to cool.
  • Euro area Consumer Confidence will help measure shoppers’ optimism and pessimism after news of a more proactive EU stance on capping energy bills.
Asia Pacific
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to remain supportive at its September meeting, contrary to counterparts in the U.S. and euro area.
  • Close attention will be paid to China policy rates in September. After easing more than expected the previous month, activity data has been surprising to the downside. Policymakers should remain supportive.


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Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Bonnie David


Christian Floro

Associate Director

Anna Hanley-Walsh


Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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