One year since the inception of our Stagflation Shock scenario, the global economy continues to face elevated inflation and falling growth. Both are slowing, but they are slowing—slowly. And the descent has not been smooth.

There are also important economic and investment implications from the continued peace in Northern Ireland.

The risks have risen, but it may arrive later than expected and you may not even notice until it’s over.

It’s official—artificial intelligence (AI) is back! The hype surrounding the rise (then fall) of crypto currencies, Web 3.0 and the all-too-early excitement around the Metaverse had stolen the limelight from AI over the past couple of years. However, summer 2022 marked a highly significant return to the headlines for it.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve wrestles inflation lower, investors wonder increasingly if its traditional target still makes sense. Should policymakers really insist on driving inflation all the way down to 2%? Haven’t pandemic and war fundamentally altered global dynamics that drove rates ever lower? Isn't this time … different?

The world is grappling with a combination of once in a generation shocks, producing an uncertain and complex economic landscape.

With a fresh surge of inflation increasingly unlikely, the market outlook is far better than it was a year ago.

For better or worse, the path of this year’s U.S. Consumer Price Index will determine the level of markets.

In the flood of market data, you could do worse than keeping your eye on these as you assess the odds of a ‘softish landing’.