Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

War Distress Hasn’t Derailed Western Growth Yet

March 2022 – 3 min read

Growth remained better than expected in March despite uncertainty for the global recovery because of war in Ukraine. U.S. supply constraints eased and employment picked up, leading to greater production.

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Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release. 

U.S.

  • The March employment report is expected to show a continued robust labor market recovery.
  • We will watch personal spending for February to gauge consumer spending’s shift from goods to services and any impact from higher necessities prices.

Europe

  • We are monitoring the economic and policy response to the Russia-Ukraine war, as the conflict’s spillovers drag on economic activity around the world.
  • EA CPI for March will likely confirm rising inflationary pressures.
  • The EA unemployment rate is expected to stay close to a record low in February.

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs for March should moderate amid the surge in COVID cases. Focus will be on gauging any impact on supply chains, given lockdown in several cities.
  • Japan activity data for February will show the impact of the latest COVID wave.

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Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Anna Hanley-Walsh

Analyst

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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