Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

The Recovery Can Still Rely on Europe's Support

September 2021 – 3 min read
While uncertainties around COVID are maintaining the risk-off sentiment, the U.S. 10-year yield jumped after the U.S. retail sales print. In China, concerns about an Evergrande collapse weighed heavily, while in Japan optimism about further fiscal spending boosted equities.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • The taper announcement is not expected at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, though it likely remains on track to begin by year-end. Updated projections and the first 2024 dot will indicate the pace of tightening being considered.
  • We will watch September PMIs to gauge the impacts from supply constraints and Delta.


  • Markit flash PMIs for September will complete Q3 high-frequency activity data. Small declines are expected and would signal a Q3 GDP print north of 7% annualized.
  • The BoE meeting will show how it manages unusually strong inflation, driven by Brexit-related labor shortages, surging energy prices, and COVID disruptions.

Asia Pacific

  • The BOJ will likely maintain the status quo while focus will be on the Jibun/Markit flash PMIs for the services industry, particularly as new cases have declined since mid-August.
  • The PBOC is expected to refrain from any broad-based easing, but the prospect of another reserve requirement ratio cut is rising. 

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Bonnie David


Christian Floro

Associate Director

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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