Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

The ECB Put a Lot of PEPP in Their Step

June 2020 – 3 min read
The ECB expanded its commitment to backstop markets, next week's FOMC meeting will provide clues on expected lift-off and OPEC+ agreed to continued cuts, albeit with strings attached.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • While the June FOMC meeting on Wednesday will not likely bring about a change in the Fed Funds rate, we watch for the Committee’s economic projections, the dot pot, as well as whether or not they strengthen forward guidance.
  • Inflation data is expected to come in soft in May amid weak demand. However, we look to the details, as consumers’ baskets have shifted during lockdowns.

Europe

  • The Eurogroup meeting will see euro area finance ministers discuss the proposed Recovery Fund. Don’t expect a quick decision—negotiations should last into autumn.
  • The OECD economic outlook will be released Wednesday, and downward revisions to global GDP growth from the interim March 2020 outlook are likely given the virus spread and economic data widely surprising to the downside.

Asia Pacific

  • China inflation is set to come in soft in May, while exports are expected to decline further in May amid weak global demand.

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Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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