Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Shoppers Jump-Start an Early Q4 Pickup

October 2021 – 3 min read
Stickier price pressures continue to stoke fears of U.S. inflation. Markets are currently pricing in rate hikes, which has led to increases in the short-end of the U.S. Treasury curve. The downward movement in the long-end suggests markets may be worried about a policy mistake.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Watch the FOMC meeting for a tapering announcement Wednesday. We will also listen for rhetoric around stickier price pressures and labor struggles.
  • The October employment report should improve, but pay attention to constraints on labor supply.
     

Europe

  • The Bank of England kept its record-low interest rate in September, but many people expect a hike next week.
  • World leaders at COP26 are planning to combat global warming, while, separately, OPEC+ members will show their intentions about oil supply, given elevated demand.

Asia Pacific

  • China October PMIs should improve as the energy crunch is addressed.
  • The ruling Liberal Democratic Party should hold its majority in Japan’s general election, but the margin of victory will help determine Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s claim to a mandate for his new policies.

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Head of Macroeconomic Research

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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