Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

No Debating the Economic Recovery

October 2020 – 3 min read
U.S. personal income fell in August as the extra unemployment benefits ended while consumer spending rose. Eyes are on the China Services PMI, which will be released next week, and chances of a new fiscal stimulus package ahead of the election are still alive, for now.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • As the U.S. labor market continues its impressive recovery, we look for the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday to see how job openings—rather than simply being recalled back into the same position—and hiring recovered in August, following an impressive jump in openings in July.
  • The FOMC Meeting Minutes for September will be released on Wednesday, October 7 and should provide greater detail on changes to forward guidance, information surrounding average inflation targeting, and new economic projections the FOMC previously discussed at its September 16 press conference.

Europe

  • German industrial production numbers for August will be released on Wednesday, October 7. This will be an important gauge of the health of the recovery during the summer in the biggest EU economy.

Asia Pacific

  • Eyes are on the Caixin China Services PMI, which will be released on Thursday, October 8, to measure the magnitude of recovery in the services sector. The services sector has bared the brunt of the crisis and retail sales have been lagging. However, the official China PMI the previous week beat expectations, suggesting the pickup in services could be mounting.

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Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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