Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Europe Rolls Up Its Sleeve

April 2021 – 3 min read
The situation in Europe is looking brighter following a pick up in vaccinations and the European Recovery Fund receiving the “all clear.” Elsewhere, a recovery in domestic demand is taking shape in China and in the U.S. the housing market is back on track.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • 1Q21 GDP is set to accelerate with broad-based gains due to ample fiscal stimulus, impressive vaccine campaigns, and easing restrictions.
  • We will watch the FOMC meeting to see if Chairman Jerome Powell changes his tune to align with upward surprises in data. Separately, the Employment Cost Index will show if the faster pace of job gains is leading to wage inflation.
     

Europe

  • We will watch for any positive surprises in April EZ inflation data driven by the recent producer price acceleration.
  • Q1 GDP for EZ and major EU economies will show the lockdown damage. Strong manufacturing and weak services should deliver a negative print.
  • Supply decisions will be followed closely at the April 28 OPEC meeting, with current cuts set to relax in May.
     

Asia Pacific

  • The BOJ meeting will likely see no changes to its main policy tools, especially right after its biggest policy review since 2016. Nevertheless, focus will be on its market operations and whether the BOJ extends its special pandemic funding measures (expiring in September), given the latest viral resurgence.

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Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Max Bennett

Analyst

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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