Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Consumers are Betting on Herd Immunity

June 2020 – 3 min read
There is much optimism in a rebound in PMIs, but the fear of a second wave is in the back of many minds. Trade deals continue to come about.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Markit flash PMIs will give a glimpse of how the recovery is unfolding in June. High frequency data has pointed to faster-than-expected rebounds in consumer spending and the auto sector.
  • Personal spending, along with positive retail sales and daily card data, is expected to improve in May. However, personal income should take a step back given the timing of stimulus checks and elevated unemployment.

Europe

  • Markit flash PMIs across most of developed Europe are expected to rebound amid economies reopening and activity moving from their depressed levels.

Asia Pacific

  • The PBOC is expected to keep the one- and five-year loan prime rates steady at their meeting on Monday, but stimulus measures are likely as China deals with weak external demand.
  • Japan flash PMIs should indicate how services and manufacturing sectors are performing following the lifting of restrictions across the country.

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Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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