Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Anything But 20-20 Vision...

October 2020 – 3 min read
Advanced estimates show easing of COVID restrictions led U.S. GDP to soar as second waves have hit Europe and new government restrictions are being implemented. U.S. Election Day is Tuesday; watch Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina—key swing states that may indicate the winner.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • U.S. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, though the final results may not be available that night. Watch Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina—key swing states that will likely have a final tally on election night. If the election is close, final results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be important but could be delayed.
  • The October employment report should show continued labor market improvement, but slowly improving initial claims suggest the pace is set to moderate.
  • While the FOMC will likely hold policy steady, we watch for discussions on the future of the asset purchase program at the FOMC meeting on November 5.


  • A £100 billion expansion of the asset purchase program is widely expected at the BoE meeting on November 5, while a cut that would bring policy rates into negative territory is not expected.

Asia Pacific

  • China PMIs for October are expected to show a continued recovery in services, but a longer Golden Week holiday may lead to easing in manufacturing data.

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Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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