Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Still No End In Sight

September 2022 – 4 min read

The hawks fluttered their wings this week, leading yields to rise, equities to fall, and markets to reprice rate expectations. The BoE is more concerned about growth, while the Fed has a singular focus on inflation. China and Japan remain accommodative, watching PMIs next week.

Watchlist

still-no-end-chart1.jpgArrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.

U.S.
  • Retail sales numbers pointed to slower goods spending, so we will watch personal spending data to gauge demand for services as shoppers’ preferences shift. We will also watch savings data to see how much households are relying on excess savings, given negative real wage growth.
  • The Core PCE Deflator is set to rise, drawing attention as well.
Europe
  • We continue to watch escalations in Russia’s war on Ukraine, including interruptions to gas flows.
  • EA CPI for September is expected to show little respite.
Asia Pacific
  • Both Japan’s and China’s PMIs should give a first look at how economic activity is faring in September amid a backdrop of slowing global growth.
  • Japan August activity data could provide clues on the consumer’s sensitivity to rising COVID cases.

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Kathryn Asher

Associate Director, Economist

Agnès Belaisch

Managing Director, Chief European Strategist

Matteo Cominetta

Director, Economist

Bonnie David

Assistant

Christian Floro

Associate Director

Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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