Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Central Banks Talking the Talk after Walking the Walk

September, 2020 – 3 min read
Look for messaging, more than actions, at global central bank meetings. U.S. retail sales are expected to hold up in August despite the expiration of unemployment benefits, and the Brexit Isles are upon us as talks heat up.

Watchlist

Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.
 

U.S.

  • Retail sales are expected to hold up in August. While the expiration of the $600/week UI benefit is weighing on high frequency spending data by those unemployed, strength in other cohorts, as of now, is offsetting this weakness.
  • Following the Federal Reserve’s change to their inflation framework, we watch for forward guidance at next week’s FOMC meeting.

Europe

  • The BOE is set to remain on hold at its meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the September ZEW Survey for the EMU and Germany will give another gauge of the strength of the recovery.

Asia Pacific

  • China activity data for August is expected to improve amid rebounding demand.
  • The Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be on Monday, with an extraordinary Diet session on September 16 in which they will name the new Prime Minister.
  • The BOJ is not likely to change course on policy despite change of Prime Minister.

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Christopher Smart, PhD, CFA

Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute

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