Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Yesterday’s News & Tomorrow’s Guidance

April 2020 – 3 min read
The U.S. Q1 GDP advance estimate will show the pandemic’s economic impact, with Q2 expected to be worse, Markit flash PMIs indicate global economic conditions are deteriorating, and Congress struck another deal to replenish the small business aid program.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • The Q1 GDP advance estimate will show the pandemic’s economic impact, with Q2 expected to be worse. Meanwhile, we watch for the FOMC meeting Wednesday.


  • Advance EU GDP Q1 numbers are due on Wednesday and Thursday and will show the first extent of the virus’s damage. Lockdowns and social distancing in EU countries in place since mid-March means the full impact will not be clear.
  • The ECB meeting on Thursday will size up PEPP (a QE program with expanded envelope and relaxed rules on country distribution of purchases) and accepting sub-IG bonds in its collateral framework. EU bond markets skittishness could force the ECB’s hand to expand existing programs, but we do not consider this our base case.

Asia Pacific

  • BOJ meeting discussions could include purchasing corporate bonds, commercial paper and unlimited government bonds, as well as a revised economic forecast.
  • China’s official PMI for April will likely show moderate economic recovery as it begins to reopen.

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