Macroeconomic & Geopolitical

Vaccine News Gives Markets Another Shot

December 2020 – 3 min read
Central banks continue to err on the side of caution to support the economy, financial markets are rotating back into risk amid vaccine progress, negotiations for Brexit are rapidly approaching year-end deadlines, while U.S. fiscal talks become more optimistic.


Arrows indicate consensus forecast compared to the previous period. Local dates of release.


  • Eyes are on initial claims data to see to how rising COVID cases and restrictions are weighing on the U.S. labor market.
  • Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for December will also indicate how consumers’ attitudes are holding up to COVID worries, rising cases and restrictions, and a lack of fiscal support.
  • Fiscal support negotiations will be monitored next week with the looming end to prominent unemployment insurance programs set to expire at year-end, as well as a widely expected spending bill to avert a government shutdown by December 11.


  • The ECB is expected next week to increase the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme by €500 billion, extend it through the end of 2021, and pay banks more to borrow. The ECB remains firmly accommodative to entrench the recovery.

Asia Pacific

  • China inflation data is expected to remain low in November amid weak food prices and still-recovering internal demand. Meanwhile, export data should continue to point to improving global trade.

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